The idea here is to have a place I can record my thoughts on the current outlook for my exasperating but beloved St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Club. I also want to track things over the course of the season, to watch my peaks and valleys as the team lurches to what promises to be another missed MLB postseason.
A good reason why the Cards are on track to miss the playoffs again is the seeming lack of interest in the major league club by the front office. The majority of the Cards efforts this off-season have been to improve the minor league side of the operation. Efforts on the major league side have been largely limited to waving goodbye to departing free agents. No multi-year contracts were given to any arbitration eligible player, though there was speculation about a couple (Helsley and Donovan in particular.) No move has added a player onto the 40 Man Roster who wasn't already in the organization except for Bailey Horn ("Bailey who?") The biggest change to date has been the announcement that Contreras was going to become a full-time first baseman. That's interesting but no more than rearranging existing parts.
I do understand some of this. The story of the Cardinals right now is one of waiting for unrealized potential to become realized. Can the team develop a core group of position players focused around Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker and Brendan Donovan? Can they stay healthy? Can they avoid crippling half-season long funks? Can management learn patience and allow young players to become established in the big league? These are all wait and see type questions, which goes a long way to explaining the lack of activity.
The wild card in all of this is, of course, Nolan Arenado. A potential trade of Arenado would do more to shakeup the roster than any of the free agent departures. However, given the scarcity of viable landing spots right now it may very well be that the best chance to trade Arenado will come closer to the trade deadline. I don't think this is a bad thing. Whatever the parameters of the Arenado nixed trade to Houston involved, it evidently set the baseline for what the Cards feel they could get, including how much of the Arenado contract they would remain on the hook for. Obviously no other team has been willing to meet that baseline expectation. There is no reason for the Cards to panic sell Arenado. He is a consummate pro and will always go out there and compete. The only risk St. Louis runs is if Nolan's performance falls off a cliff during the first half of 2025. That strikes me as unlikely. Once again, wait and see is most likely the order of the day.
Starting Rotation
As of right now the starting rotation is the most settled part of the roster, which is unusual as the rotation is usually the most fluid part of anybody's roster. Here is how I would set the rotation (assuming health is good):
#1 Sonny Gray - Probably better suited as a #2 these days, but he is the closest we got to an ace.
#2 Erick Fedde - At his best he could be a legit #2, but he needs to back up his strong 2024.
#3 Andre Pallante - Yes, I'm buying his last 11 starts is the pitcher he is.
#4 Steven Matz - The flashes of good form intrigue. Best case scenario he pitches well enough to become a trade target.
#5 Miles Mikolas - Miles is here just because that would be the Cardinals thing to do. Here is hoping he bounces back. It would be hard to be any worse than he was last season.
Extras: Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy - If Cards run true to form we can expect bullpen work and spot starts for these players.
Bullpen
I'm just like everyone else. I have no idea how the bullpen will shake out other than Helsley closing. Between King, Horn, Romero, Liberatore, Helsley, O'Brien, Fernandez, Roycroft and Thompson they probably have enough for the pen. Would I say no to adding a piece? No, but it isn't likely to happen.
Infield
With the exception of Contreras taking over for Goldy at first, this infield is going to look familiar. My expectation is that Donovan will fill a super utility role now that Edmond is living the high life with the Dodgers.
1B - Willson Contreras
2B - Nolan Gorman
SS - Masyn Winn
3B - Nolan Arenado
C - Ivan Herrera
Util - Brendan Donovan
BC - Pedro Pages
As a unit I don't hate this, though a lot will depend on health (Contreras) and limiting slumps (Gorman.)
Outfield
This is where the fate of the 2025 Cardinals will really be decided. Every player slated to contribute to the OF has serious questions about what kind of major league they can be.
Michael Siani - Cards love his defense, but will he hit enough to be an everyday major leaguer? Career OPS+ of 54 is not encouraging.
Jordan Walker - Has unreal high ceiling, but did the Cards brass mess him up for good trying to "fix" him?
Lars Nootbaar - Can his body hold up well enough to get a 600AB season? To date the answer has been no.
Alec Burleson - For all the talk of his "breakout" 2024, his OPS+ was just 104. Does he have another level he can take his game to?
Victor Scott II - Love the defense and the speed, but needs a plus hit tool to be a difference maker at this level. It is an open question if he has that tool.
Right now, today, this roster looks like a .500 ballclub. Given the stated intention to get younger there is a good chance the roster we see after the trade deadline will not be as good.
Things will change, however. We shall take another look next month after Spring Training opens.
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