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The Rotation: An Onageristic Estimate

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The PD has this run down on the potential starters going into Spring Training. He is my best guess as to what will happen:

Anthony Reyes

PD's take: The Cardinals insist nothing is guaranteed for 25-year-old, but he'll really have to pitch his way out of a spot in rotation.

GASL's take: Number 3 starter. Makes 23-27 starts, maybe loses a couple starts as wear and tear builds later in the season. ERA in the 4.10-4.40 range.

Adam Wainright

PD's take: Only Jason Isringhausen's health will keep Wainwright out of the starting rotation; if Izzy's ready to close, Wainwright is ready to start.

GASL's take: Number 2 starter. Makes 30+ starts. ERA 3.80-4.10 range.

Braden Looper

PD's take: Duncan believes the 32-year-old will use more of his pitches more effectively as a starter. Looper needs games to show if he can thrive with a radical career change.

GASL's take: Won't happen. If Izzy isn't ready to go at the season start there is a small chance the Looper show will get a chance to go primetime. My prediction is 1 start +/- 1.

Ryan Franklin

PD's take: His background probably makes him the quiet favorite for the No. 5 spot, though Cardinals like his resiliency, versatility.

GASL's take: Will be the number 5 to start the season. Will get injured. I'm guessing 12-15 starts. ERA 4.75-5.05

Brad Thompson

PD's take: Of the group, the 25-year-old may be best suited for the bullpen. A strong March could make him the place-holder for Mark Mulder.

GASL's take: Bullpen. No starts barring major injuries.

Troy Cate

PD's take: Poised to be a spring surprise, the 26-year-old lefty had a 1.30 ERA for Mazatlan. But he has to wow 'em to even crack crowded bullpen.

GASL's take: Good for the kid to earn this sort of mention in the press. Not gonna happen this year. No starts. AAA will need him.

Chris Narveson

PD's take: Out of options, Narveson could shove his way into majors (ala Wainwright), but his spring is about exposure and future considerations.

GASL's take: Chris will get his chance one way or another this year. If you think Cate is going to stay in AAA, Narveson is the best (only?) option for a left handed starter. He will get anywhere from 12-20 starts. ERA is anybody's guess. If you FORCE me to pick I'd say 5.00-5.30. The walk will kill him at this level. (Imagine a less exasperating Marquis. Narveson may be able to grow into a solid big league pitcher...who will do what he needs to to win games.)

Oh, in case you were wondering, an "onager" is a wild ass found in central asia. So an Onageristic Estimate is a "wild ass guess." It is humor from my father's grad school days in the 1960's. It lives on!

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