Cardinals Prospects For 2008 = Bleak

Got this assessment on the Cardinals position from the PD:

In the wake of the organization's four-week search before naming Mozeliak as successor to Walt Jocketty, and Mozeliak's four-week search for an assistant general manager, the Cardinals appear to be playing catch-up.

Any hopes of acquiring a front-line pitcher through trade have been replaced by scouring the free-agent market for a short-term acquisition such as Kris Benson, Bartolo Colon or Josh Fogg. The situation has yet to become bleak enough for La Russa or Mozeliak to suggest Anthony Reyes' possible return as a No. 5 starter, perhaps because Reyes is being shopped widely to teams such as the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.

Club sources indicated by week's end that Rasmus could lose his "untouchable" label in a potential deal for Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Erik Bedard. Such a deal would have to include at least another prominent Cardinals prospect such as Bryan Anderson or Chris Perez. Of course, the Cardinals envision Perez as a potential heir to closer Jason Isringhausen next season. Rasmus is being groomed to take over for center fielder Jim Edmonds. Isringhausen and Edmonds are owed a combined $16 million in 2008.

Unable to decide whether Rolen is coming or going, the Cardinals are unable to deal either of their power-hitting, lefthanded-hitting outfielders, Chris Duncan or Rick Ankiel. Open to dealing Edmonds to a West Coast team, the Cardinals found his value is diminished by three consecutive injury-scarred seasons. Many within the organization admit Edmonds and Rolen offer more value to their current team than logical trading partners.

So far the Cardinals have signed free-agent catcher Jason LaRue and shortstop Cesar Izturis and drafted Cleveland Indians outfield prospect Brian Barton. They continue to offer assurances about lefthanded starter Mark Mulder's recovery from rotator cuff repair in September. His return to health, according to Mozeliak and La Russa, would answer many of the questions raised by a 78-84 season that never achieved consistency within the starting rotation.

A team that signed Chris Carpenter for the major-league minimum at the 2002 meetings and that once used 11 victories from a former tow truck operator named Jason Simontacchi to save itself five years ago again seeks to "catch lightning in bottle."

That is the long way of saying, "We're screwed."

The key will be if the organization will notice that we are screwed and look more to 2009 and beyond. If they try to salvage 2008 that could just be courting disaster, and dooming us all to a long run of futility. We don't have the prospects in our system to generate trade offers with value. The free agent market is uninspiring at best. The starting rotation and the everyday lineup are best described as representing "a wing and a prayer." And, as of right now, the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are simply better than we are. There is nothing the Cardinals could do between today and the start of Spring Training that can alter all of that. So they shouldn't try.

The impulse is for the Cards to do something...anything. But that impulse is dead wrong in this case. It doesn't even make sense to trade Rolen or Edmonds. Maybe, if they can be productive during the season they could rehabilitate some of their value by the time the trade deadline comes up, and that would represent the best-case scenario for the Cards (and for my mental health.)

As much as it pains me to say it, I think it would be a mistake to trade Rasmus in a package for Bedard. I like Bedard a lot, but he cannot save the Cards 2008 season. (He can make it suck less, but that is not the same thing.) Rasmus could be an important piece for years to come, or he may not. But that is a risk the Cards have to take, especially if they are really going to commit to the player development model.

So, were I advising Mozeliak I'd say, "Try to sign Colon for a year, and sit tight. Don't be pressured into making a dumb move just because you are new to the job. We probably won't be very good this year, and that is okay."

Half of me thinks that is exactly what Mozeliak will do, and the other half of me is waiting for something incredibly stupid that will doom the Cards to a decade of mediocrity.