I'm gonna assume there will be no "goal disallowed" shenanigans in the finals. Though, why I can just assume that even I'm not sure. (Brett Hull's Cup clinching "goal" anyone?) I'm just gonna hope for a well officiated Finals.
So lets break down these teams, shall we:
Goaltending: Everything starts with the net minders. Even in the "new" NHL, good goalies are gonna stop 91-94% of the pucks thrown at them. So it is Ottawa's Emery against the Duck's Giguere. Emery has gone 12-3 in the playoffs with 3 shutouts and a .919 save percentage. Giguere has gone 9-3 with no shutouts and a .931 save percentage.
GASL will give a slight advantage to Anaheim here. Giguere played a bigger role in getting the Duck's to this point then Emery has. Emery has yet to face real adversity in these playoffs, while Giguere came up huge against Detroit.
Anaheim +1
Defense: Both Ottawa and Anaheim have deep bluelines. Ottawa's defensemen have picked up 8G 24A with a +/- of +22. Anaheim compiled numbers of 10G 23A with a +/- of +14. On balance, however, it is Anaheim's defense that offers more. Pronger is the Duck's leading point getter going into the finals, and having Beauchemin and Niedermayer on the roster simply makes the Duck more dynamic when compared to Ottawa's Corvo, Redden and Preissing (good though they are.)
Anaheim +1
Offense: Ottawa forwards contributed 40G 56A +36, and Anaheim tallied 32G 49A +19. Ottawa's forwards have been far superior to the Ducks. The Senator's top 4 forwards have accounted for 65 points, while the Duck's only managed 44, AND the Ducks played one more game than Ottawa. Additionally, the Sens have been getting superstar quality play from Daniel Alfredsson. The Ducks have no forward playing that well.
Ottawa +2
Penalty Kill: In the playoffs Anaheim have taken 307 minutes in penalties and given up 12 power play goals. For Ottawa the numbers are 192 and 9. So Ottawa gives up a power play goal once for every 21.33 penalty minutes taken, while for Anaheim the number is one for every 25.58 penalty minutes. Given these numbers we would expect the Ducks to give up 5-6 power play goals over a seven game series and the Sens to give up 4-5.
Ottawa +1
Power Play: In the playoffs Anaheim netted 13 power play goals in the 244 penalty minutes taken by its opponents (1 per 18.79 minutes), and Ottawa 14 in 174 (1 per 12.42). This would mean we would expect the Sens to score 6-7 power play goals in a 7 game series, and the Ducks 5-6.
Ottawa +1
Intangibles: This is pretty much a wash. Both teams have scored twice shorthanded, though Anaheim also gave up 2 shorties. Ottawa won twice in OT without losing that way, but Anaheim was 4-0 in OT games.
No advantage
So that leaves GASL to predict Ottawa in 6 (maybe 7).
GASL will be rooting for Anaheim.
So lets break down these teams, shall we:
Goaltending: Everything starts with the net minders. Even in the "new" NHL, good goalies are gonna stop 91-94% of the pucks thrown at them. So it is Ottawa's Emery against the Duck's Giguere. Emery has gone 12-3 in the playoffs with 3 shutouts and a .919 save percentage. Giguere has gone 9-3 with no shutouts and a .931 save percentage.
GASL will give a slight advantage to Anaheim here. Giguere played a bigger role in getting the Duck's to this point then Emery has. Emery has yet to face real adversity in these playoffs, while Giguere came up huge against Detroit.
Anaheim +1
Defense: Both Ottawa and Anaheim have deep bluelines. Ottawa's defensemen have picked up 8G 24A with a +/- of +22. Anaheim compiled numbers of 10G 23A with a +/- of +14. On balance, however, it is Anaheim's defense that offers more. Pronger is the Duck's leading point getter going into the finals, and having Beauchemin and Niedermayer on the roster simply makes the Duck more dynamic when compared to Ottawa's Corvo, Redden and Preissing (good though they are.)
Anaheim +1
Offense: Ottawa forwards contributed 40G 56A +36, and Anaheim tallied 32G 49A +19. Ottawa's forwards have been far superior to the Ducks. The Senator's top 4 forwards have accounted for 65 points, while the Duck's only managed 44, AND the Ducks played one more game than Ottawa. Additionally, the Sens have been getting superstar quality play from Daniel Alfredsson. The Ducks have no forward playing that well.
Ottawa +2
Penalty Kill: In the playoffs Anaheim have taken 307 minutes in penalties and given up 12 power play goals. For Ottawa the numbers are 192 and 9. So Ottawa gives up a power play goal once for every 21.33 penalty minutes taken, while for Anaheim the number is one for every 25.58 penalty minutes. Given these numbers we would expect the Ducks to give up 5-6 power play goals over a seven game series and the Sens to give up 4-5.
Ottawa +1
Power Play: In the playoffs Anaheim netted 13 power play goals in the 244 penalty minutes taken by its opponents (1 per 18.79 minutes), and Ottawa 14 in 174 (1 per 12.42). This would mean we would expect the Sens to score 6-7 power play goals in a 7 game series, and the Ducks 5-6.
Ottawa +1
Intangibles: This is pretty much a wash. Both teams have scored twice shorthanded, though Anaheim also gave up 2 shorties. Ottawa won twice in OT without losing that way, but Anaheim was 4-0 in OT games.
No advantage
So that leaves GASL to predict Ottawa in 6 (maybe 7).
GASL will be rooting for Anaheim.
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