Mulder

If you are getting this news here for the first time I'd be surprised, but they say over at the PD:

After a winter that included his marriage, and courtship by more teams than he ever expected, lefthanded starting pitcher Mark Mulder elected to re-sign with the Cardinals for two years with a team option for a third, the Post-Dispatch learned Wednesday.

The 29-year-old lefty, who will spend the first half of the season rehabbing a surgically repaired shoulder, chose to return to the Cardinals over two aggressive suitors, the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers.

Mulder made the decision Wednesday, just a few days after general manager Walt Jocketty visited Arizona to meet in person with Mulder’s agent.

It was during these conversations that the Cardinals upped their initial offer to a contract that guarantees Mulder $13 million. The contract includes a team option for a third season, the salary of which will be determined by the incentives he reaches in 2008. The contract could pay him $11.5 million-$12 million for 2008, when he is a full season removed from surgery.

Well, the Cards have been saying they do not want to overspend for people, and I suppose you could argue that that is true with Mulder, and maybe the potential upside to Mulder worth the risk of the possible downside...but it is hardly a confidence inspiring move.

Over at EL Birdos:

bad idea imho, for reasons explained here. the $13m guarantee is not the issue; in this market, that's not such a terrible bet to place. the big problem with this signing is the opportunity cost. mulder, when he returns, will take starts/innings away from other pitchers who might well be better than he is. he also further muddies an already murky rotation picture. we won't know for 6 to 7 months whether he is capable of helping the team this year --- but until that question is answered, the team will probably scale down its pursuit of other rotation help. if they do in fact wait for mulder to come around, the delay could be very costly in the win column.

Well, this is certainly the worst case scenario...and Lord knows we've seen a few of those. (How much of my life was wasted waiting for Andy Benes or Joe Magrane to be healthy?) On the other hand, who is Mulder gonna take a spot from that is a lock sure big league starter? Probably no one. So I'd take the gamble.

There is a similar take (to mine) on Get Up Baby!

I like this move. The going price for average pitchers is $9-10 million. If you can take a gamble on a guy who might be well above average for about that price, annually, then you should definitely do it. It beats another Encarnacion signing–good, inasmuch as they’re paying the going rate for average, but bad because there’s no potential reward to be reaped. This is a team that needs upside wherever it can get it.

Couldn't agree more.